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Eurozone Credit

The table below describes the state of credit among the countries of the eurozone. The columns marked with time periods (3M, 1Y, 3Y, etc) are the annualized credit growth (or decline) over that time period. The "State" column says a nation is in deflation if the 1Y annualized credit growth in credit is negative - the column marked 1Y.

Data comes from the ECB as a part of their Monthly Bulletin; it has a lag of about 45 days (the Feb release data is as of end of December, for instance), and it is released on the second Thursday of every month.

Note that Greece has already gone through a default and thus their credit decline is quite dramatic. The 10Y column is the average credit growth over the past 10 years, which is meant to give a sense of what "normal" credit growth looks like, although one might argue that the last 10 years may have been a bubble period in many nations.

One really important note: the data is collected by the ECB, and records the values of the loans and bonds as reported by that nation's banking system. If the banks in that nation have not yet written down their bad loans it is almost guaranteed that there is a substantial amount of deflation yet to occur. If you examine Ireland, you will see that the banks there have written down a large amount of their nonperforming loan portfolios. This is not true for most of the other nations in the eurozone.

NationLast UpdateLoansD/GDP1M3M1Y3Y10YStateTrend
Netherlands2017-06-301.41T617-37.2- growthworse
Austria2017-06-30534.78B359-7.4-3.01.4-0.80.9slow growthworse
Italy2017-06-302.48T38612. growthbetter

Eurozone Total Credit, Eurozone Credit Growth

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