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Inflation Or Deflation?

Inflation is defined as the growth in money and credit, rather than the observation of specific prices. To explore this model, it follows that we should probably look at series that show what's happening with money and credit.

The first pair of charts look at total credit and the % change in that credit year over year. The 2008 crash caused a slowdown in the increase of credit - easiest to see on the % change chart. During the bubble years the yearly growth in money & credit hovered around 10%.

Second pair of charts look at US credit in more detail; things are broken down by segment - households, corporate businesses, government, etc. After the 2008 crash, the right-hand chart clearly shows the dramatic rise in government spending that happened in an attempt to avoid a depression.

US Total Credit, US Credit Growth %Change


tcmdo chart tcmdo pct chart

Change in US Total Credit Detail, US Credit Growth % Change Detail


tcmdo chart tcmdo pct chart

US Bank Credit


bank credit chart bank credit chart